(In the voice of King George from Broadway’s Hamilton:)
What comes next?
You’ve been freed
A mirror you no longer need
A camera or a phone?
Awesome. Wow.
Do you have enough lenses now?
Full frames rise
Crop sensors fall
Is your camera body getting too tall?
No longer alone, Sony…
When your people say they hate you
Remind them you made cameras work silently…
Da da da da da
Da da da da daye da
Da da da da daye da
Photokina 2018 Wrap-up
Several months before Photokina, I laid out my predictions here. I explicitly stated, “In general terms, this will be the year of mirrorless.” I outlined how I expected full frame mirrorless from Canon and Nikon to be the major cameras at Photokina. If anything, I underestimated the impact of full frame mirrorless. Not only did we get 2 full frame mirrorless models from Nikon and 1 full frame mirrorless model from Canon, we also got the L-mount alliance, with Sigma, Leica and Panasonic moving forward with a shared full frame mount. Though not yet full baked, Panasonic announced the development of two full frame mirrorless cameras. Not to be left out, Zeiss also is getting in on the action with a fixed lens full frame mirrorless camera.
Up until a couple of months ago, Sony mostly had full frame mirrorless to themselves. Leica was the only other full frame mirrorless mount but they concentrated on ultra expensive cameras, appealing to a very limited subset of customers. With announcements and pre-announcements, by next year, we will have full frame mirrorless interchangeable lens cameras (ILCs) from Canon, Nikon, Sigma and Panasonic. That leaves Olympus, Pentax and Fuji as the only significant camera companies not jumping in to the full frame mirrorless pool. (But Pentax has moved towards full frame dSLR. Meanwhile, Fuji does aps-c and medium format mirrorless, just skipping over full frame).
Around 90% of the market is dominated by the big three of Canon, Nikon and Sony. Let’s discuss what we can expect from these three market drivers. But first, let me look specifically at my Photokina predictions for each and grade my own analysis:
Looking back at my Canon predictions:
Here is the critical part of my prediction:
They will wait longer before upgrading the 7D series, but an upgrade is coming.. 2018 Photokina will be about showcasing full frame mirrorless. They will either announce something over the summer or at Photokina. I’m expecting a full frame mirrorless camera that keeps the EF mount. I suspect the new mirrorless camera will slot in between the 6Dii and 5Div in price, features and performance.
I did pretty well — Canon was pretty up to date on their established lines going in to Photokina. The 7dii is getting old but Canon has pretty long cycles for their high end cameras. Where I was wrong was in the mount retention. They kept the same mount diameter but did in fact go with a new mount for the Canon R full frame mirrorless camera. I was correct that it would slot between the 5Div and 6Dii.
I’ll deduct from my grade for not predicting a whole new mount, and give myself a “B.”
Looking back at my Nikon predictions:
To condense my 2018 Nikon Photokina predictions:
The question is whether they start with full frame (FX) or aps-c (DX). I expect both will be on display at Photokina. I further expect the cameras will use a new mount. Expect Nikon to pack in some sort of new twist or feature not offered by Sony and Canon, to make up for being behind and having fewer lenses. They have a history of not wanting to cannibalize their own sales so I doubt they will do anything that can undermine their own sales of the D850. Possible Surprise: D3400 update
We got two full frame cameras in the Nikon Z6 and Z7. The “new twist” being the shortest flange distance and largest diameter of any mount.
We also did in fact get the Nikon D3500.
But I was wrong on two key issues: I expected we would see APS-C/DX mirrorless in addition to full frame. Instead, we have absolute silence on mirrorless aps-c from Nikon. Additionally, I doubted they would do anything to undermine sales of the D850 but the Nikon Z7 does compete, with the same sensor and same price. The D850 may still be preferable for those shooting action, those who need dual card slots, but the Z7 may be preferable for those shooting a lot of video or those wanting a lighter camera.
Overall, I’ll give myself a B- for missing the lack of aps-c and for missing a D850 competitor.
Looking back at my Sony predictions:
My readers know I spend most of my time with Sony and I feel I truly understand their mentality. I wrote:
I expect them to be quiet as usual for the last few (Photokina) years… Many are expecting an A7siii. While possible, I wouldn’t be surprised if Sony waited to 2019 for this video-centric camera model. .. I do expect a high end pro level aps-c camera…Sony will want a new model to move the goal posts. I expect this model to either come Spring/early Summer, or immediately after Photokina, with their own press event, to kill any momentum that Nikon or Canon generated…Sony will showcase their new 400mm F/2.8 at Photokina. I expect there will be a couple more new lenses.
I admit I hedged a bit, but my expectation was high-end aps-c model before we get a videocentric A7siii, and my expectation was that it would likely come shortly after Photokina instead of before. On October 1, 2018, SonyAlphaRumors.com posted that sources confirm a high end aps-c camera is coming very soon. If this pans out, then my prediction was pretty good.
In terms of lenses, Sony did in fact introduce a new 24mm F/1.8 GM for Photokina.
My only miss was that I expected a couple of new lenses and we only got one. But I feel I deserve an A- overall for my Sony predictions.
What to Expect in the Next 12 Months:
Some questions have been answered, leading to some new questions. More products are due for upgrades. To what extent will we see mirrorless replace dSLR or will we see them living side by side?
Canon Predictions 2018-2019
Canon sticks truest to their iteration cycles even if they often have very long cycles. With the biggest market share, they can afford to large array of products where competitors may want to consolidate to fewer models.
The Canon 7Dii will be 5 years old in 2019, making it ripe for replacement. With all the camera makers looking to move upscale in pricing, Canon’s flagship aps-c camera is critical for them. Expect a Canon 7Diii.
Meanwhile, the Canon Rebel series has defined the consumer dSLR market for the last 15 years. Over the last 3 years, I’ve taught introductory/enthusiast photography to about 50 students — More than half have been Canon Rebel users. It may be an iterative update but expect a Canon Rebel T8i in February or March of 2019.
Finally within Canon’s aps-c lineup, you have the current 80D. Technically, the three year upgrade cycle is due in 2019. This camera slots between the Rebel line-up and the 7D lineup. With a shrinking camera market, it is possible that this model upgrade gets squeezed out. So while it is due, I’m not positive we will get an upgrade in 2019. (50/50 chance of upgrade?)
Moving to mirrorless, Canon did not introduce a $3000 28-70 F/2 lens with the goal of using it on the mid level Canon R. Meanwhile, Canon doesn’t truly have a high resolution model that can compete with the Sony A7riii/Nikon D850/Nikon Z7. While the Canon 5Ds and 5Dsr technically have greater resolution than the Sony and Nikon models, these 3+ year-old models have limited feature sets making them poor competition.
Put it together and expect the big story for Canon in 2019: A high-end, high-resolution Canon Rx model. I expect this camera mirrorless camera to replace the 5Ds and 5Dsr models.
Canon’s Questions Moving Forward:
The full frame Canon Rf mount is incompatible with the mirrorless APS-C Canon M mount. The big question moving forward is whether they continue to maintain two mounts incompatible with each other. Signalling an intent to keep the M mount, there was the new Canon M50 this year as well as a recent new M lens. Will the Rf mount be used solely for full frame cameras? Will there by a high end aps-c Rf mount camera?
Nikon Prediction 2018-2019
To a large extent, Nikon is up to date in their most critical dSLRs. At the low end, the D3500 was just released to update the entry level, although it was a rather minimal update. At the enthusiast end, the D7xxx series sees updated every 2 to 3 years, with the most recent D7500 announced in April 2017 and released in June 2017. In theory, we could get an update within the next 12 months but the D7500 upgrade was met with a shrug from the market. I suspect that in a declining market, the upgrade cycle may be extended. Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised if there is no D7500 upgrade in the next 12 months.
At the pro/semi-pro level in the aps-c line-up, the D500 was released in early 2016. As they skipped any D400, there is no clear cut upgrade cycle for this product.
The D500 was released the same time as the D5 — Nikon’s flagship sports full frame camera. Here, the upgrade cycle is very clear: 8-12 months before the summer Olympics, every four years. Typically, there is a mid-cycle minor refresh: D3s, D4s. The D300 got a similar mid-cycle refresh, so some were expecting the D500 to get a similar refresh. At this juncture, they are long past the due date for a mid-cycle refresh. Accordingly, I don’t expect to see updates to either the D5 or D500 until late 2019/early 2020 (not within the next 12 months).
Some are even starting to question whether there will be a D6 or whether Nikon’s next flagship will be mirrorless. While I definitely believe mirrorless will replace dSLR, I doubt Nikon will have the confidence to make the turnover to mirrorless that quickly.
Turning to full frame mirrorless, the Nikon Z6 and Z7 will be the answers to the full frame market for a while. Even with a quick upgrade cycle, you wouldn’t see anything for another couple of years. The Z7/Z6 combination is pretty similar to the D810/D750 combo that was the Nikon dSLR backbone for several years. So I don’t expect any more full frame mirrorless models for a while.
That leaves only two cameras truly due for upgrades in the next 12 months. First, the camera I expect that may die: The D5600, which is approaching two years of age. For those that want cheap, the D3500 already is on sale for $499 or $599 with 2-lens kit. For those that want more features, there is the D7500 and D500. In a shrinking market, not sure there is enough demand to justify a tweener camera like the D5600, which basically just adds a better LCD to the D3500 and a couple other minor features.
Finally, that leaves the one camera that must be updated: The Nikon D750. Despite now being over 4 years old, it’s still a solid seller for Nikon. Now heavily discounted, it’s probably still the best traditional dSLR for the price. While Nikon probably won’t continue the D6xx or Df lines, the D750 is too successful not to continue. At the same time, Nikon won’t want to cannibalize sales of the Z6, being released at the end of 2018. Priced at $2,000 with a 24mp sensor, one would expect the D760 to occupy essentially the same market space.
So finally some predictions:
Nikon D760, using the Z6 sensor and many of the Z6 upgrades but in a traditional dSLR body. Just don’t expect the camera until after the Z6 has been on the market for a few months, so as not to cannibalize early Z6 sales. So D760 in mid 2019.
Other than the D760, Nikon already told us where their energy will be in 2018-2019: Mirrorless lenses.
Six S-line full frame mirrorless lenses in 2019, to give the Z-system native coverage from 14mm to 200mm, with the popular prime lens focal lengths covered with 1.8 primes. In sum, I expect 2018-2019 to be a quiet period for Nikon cameras but very busy for lenses.
Nikon’s Questions Moving Forward
Nikon still hasn’t done any aps-c mirrorless cameras. The lens roadmap doesn’t have an aps-c lenses on it. The large Z-mount almost seems too big for aps-c. While it would technically work, it would make the cameras larger than other aps-c cameras. Meanwhile, aps-c dSLRs have been rather stagnant. The D3500 is barely changed since the D3300. While the D7500 has fans, in some ways it was a downgrade from the D7200. So the big question for Nikon, what’s the future of DX/APS-C?
Sony Predictions 2018-2019
Sony has spoiled their users with fast upgrade cycles but as the system matures, one would expect these upgrade cycles to slow down. There are already signs of this slow down: While the A7ii came one year after the A7, and the A7riii came just two years after the A7rii, there were three years between the A7ii and A7iii. These cycles are likely to get longer in the future.
Sony has four lines of full frame cameras. With A7riii and A7iii are both less than a year old: Don’t expect an upgrade in the next 12 months. The A9 will hit two years old, but as a competitor to the Nikon D5 and Canon 1Dxii, Sony will probably put it on a Summer Olympics schedule: An update in very late 2019 or early 2010. The Sony A7sii is now three years old: Therefore, this is the only full frame camera I expect to see an upgrade in soon. Probably in early 2019. My guess is they will make it a bit more vlogger friendly in addition to updating the 4K specs.
Sony has neglected the aps-c lineup for the last two years. I still expect a high end “mini-A9” camera to be announced very very soon. This may even feature some new sensor technology, taking the stacked sensor of the A9 a step further.
A mini-A9 would only be the second camera of 2018. It does seem Sony is only aiming to release 2-3 ILC cameras per year. So what might join the A7siii in 2019? The A5100 is now 4-years old. The A6000 is also four years old. Some expect Sony to just continue building new high priced models and push the older models down the ladder to entry level shooters But that’s a poor answer to the entry-level market. Would A7iii buyers be happy if they were told to just buy an A7rii?
So my camera predictions for Sony over the next 12 months: Within weeks, a “mini A9.” Early 2019, Sony A7siii. Also in 2019: Sony A5200 and possibly Sony A6000ii.
Sony Questions Moving Forward:
Having already established themselves in mirrorless, Sony is fairly predictable right now. Yet, not long ago, Sony Alpha referred to the Sony A-mount inherited from Minolta. There hasn’t been a new A-mount camera in over 2 years. The most popular A-mount camera, the A77ii is now 4 and a 1/2 years old: overdue for an upgrade. Sony has not updated any A-mount lenses in over 3 years and has not announced a truly new a- mount lens in over 5 years. When one considers the development cycles of lenses and cameras, it would appear that Sony ceased putting new A-mount products into development 4-5 years ago, the same time they got serious about the mirrorless E/FE mount. The question is, are there any signs of life in A-mount? At what point will Sony make the death of A-mount official?
In Totality, Next 12 Months:
These last 12 months were pretty exciting for those who follow the camera market. Nikon updated a premier camera in the D850. Sony reached a point of showing that mirrorless cameras can match or exceed dSLRs with the A7iii and A7riii. Nikon and Canon both entered the full frame mirrorless world. The next 12 months will see all the recent announcements come to fruition: the 2019 marketplace will be awash in full frame mirrorless options. The next 12 months may be a bit more quiet in terms of new product announcements. dSLRs have matured to a point where big frequent updates won’t happen as often. The next big product time period will be late 2019-2020. The Summer Olympics make the camera companies release their flagship sports cameras, showing off their newest and most innovative technologies. By 2020, all three camera makers likely be ready for another generation of mirrorless. The next 12 months may be the relative calm before the next storm.
