Photokina is the premier photography convention and exposition. Coming just once every two years, the camera brands use it to heavily promote new releases.
In some cases, there will be big announcements at Photokina. Alternatively, some companies will make big announcements in the months leading up to Photokina and then use the convention to show off these recent announcements.
Accordingly, I expect May through September to be busy months of exciting releases and announcements, up through Photokina, which runs from September 25 to September 30, 2018.
To get an idea of what to expect in the coming months, let’s see what each of the big three brands did in 2014 and 2016. Keep in mind the massive changes that have occurred in the photography industry over the last four years. In 2014, full frame mirrorless was in its infancy. While compact camera sales were shrinking, they hadn’t yet disappeared. Samsung was one of the leaders in aps-c mirrorless and they have now abandoned the market. Meanwhile, much of the photo industry was impacted by earthquake in 2016, especially disrupting the supply chain for Nikon and Sony, though Canon was less affected.
Nikon 2014 – 2016 Photokina:
2014 brought a game changing camera for many, including myself, the Nikon D750. A highly capable, fairly affordable, semi-pro and enthusiast full frame dSLR camera. (The D750 is still an exceptional camera and can be purchased refurbished for an excellent value). They also announced a new Coolpix camera, new flashgun (SB 500), and new lens, the 20mm F/1.8.
Perhaps because they were trying to adjust to the changing market, 2016 was much quieter for Nikon. They heavily promoted their KeyMission action cams — which then fell entirely flat in the market. Nikon further promoted their entry level D3400, which had been announced about a month earlier. (And it remains the last entry level aps-c dSLR introduced by Nikon. it’s the best bargain for IQ around.). They featured their D5 and D500, but those cameras had been announced much earlier in the year. The 105mmF/1.4 was also released in the summer leading up to Photokina.
Canon Photokina 2014 – 2016
In 2014, Canon went big with the Canon 7Dii, really raising the bar for APS-C sports/enthusiast shooting. They announced the Canon G7x, a one inch sensor compact, as well as a super zoom bridge camera, the Canon SX60HS. Completing the busy Photokina, they announced three lenses including a 24mm F/2.8, 24-105mm F/3.5-5.6 and a 400mm F/4.
In 2016, Canon showed they can get serious with aps-c mirrorless. While their prior mirrorless models were decidedly entry level, they announced the enthusiast Canon M5 a couple of weeks before Photokina. (one can argue that the Canon M5 is better than the Sony A6300 and A6500 at current prices).They further released the 5D update, the Canon 5D mark IV in the weeks leading up to Photokina.
Sony Photokina 2014- 2016
Sony hasn’t done a what I would consider a “big” Photokina since 2012, when they showcased the A-mount Sony A99. In the last few years, Sony has chosen to create their own big events around releases, allowing them to get unshared press attention.
In 2014, the Sony full frame mirrorless system was less than a year old. Sony quietly went with a video-centric lens, the 28-135, and their first full frame ultawide lens, the Sony 16-35mm F/4. They further showcased their QX cameras, which appear to be defunct now. While not in the period immediately before Photokina, the Sony A7s and top selling Sony A6000 were both released in the Spring of 2014, and were therefore still “recent” by the time of Photokina.
Sony pulled off a surprise in 2016 — announcing the A-mount Sony A99ii. While this is an impressive camera, many thought A-mount was already basically dead in 2016. And other than the release of this camera, Sony hasn’t done anything else to give any life to A-mount since then. Thus, 2016 Photokina may have been the last A-mount gasp from Sony. It was otherwise a quiet Photokina for Sony. They released their Sony A6300 in the early spring 2016. But illustrating my point about creating their own separate press events, they released the Sony A6500 and RX100v nearly immediately after Photokina 2016.
What’s Overdue?
Nikon Overdue:
Nikon has only released a single camera in the last year, the Nikon D850. So in looking at their past upgrade cycles, they have several models and lines that are due for upgrade. Forget about point and shoot/compact. Those markets have all but been abandoned. For their ILCs:
Nikon Df/D610: Both probably will not be directly continued.
Nikon D750: Will hit four years old as of Photokina. Still a good seller but now heavily discounted.
Nikon D3400/D5600: It’s been a year and a half since Nikon has done an entry level aps-c camera.
Nikon “One” system: Probably dead.
Nikon APS-C and full frame mirrorless:
Canon Overdue:
Canon’s aps-c cameras are fairly up to date. The Rebel T7i is just over a year old, the Rebel SL2 is just under a year old. The Rebel T7 is brand new.
At going a bit over 2 years old, the 80D could get replaced, as the line has been on a 2-3 year cycle. But an update isn’t “overdue.”
Canon 7dii: Four years old as of this Photokina. Though note that there were 5 years between the 7D and 7Dii.
In full frame, the 1Dxii, 5D mark Iv and 6Dii are all”current,” under 3 years old. The only full frame models older than 3 years as of Photokina: the high resolution 5Ds and 5Dsr. Canon may wish to upgrade these models to better compete with the Nikon D850 and Sony A7riii but Canon usually keeps their full frame models for 4 or more years. So I suspect they each have at least a year left.
APS-C mirrorless: The M5 is under 2 years old. The M50 is brand new. (Priced the same as the A6300, the Canon M50 is newer with some clear advantages over the Sony). They are pretty caught up. But they could use LENSES. Canon still has only 7 lenses for the whole system.
Full frame mirrorless: The world waits.
Sony Overdue:
A-mount: Everything is overdue except for the A99ii. No entry level since the A58 five years ago. No lenses in years. The enthusiast A77ii is now four years old.
FE full frame: The A7iii and A7riii are brand new. The A7sii will hit 3 years old in September. While this isn’t ancient for a full frame camera, Sony has been updating their full frame mirrorless more often.
Mirrorless APC-S:
While the A6300 and A6500 aren’t “old,” Sony hasn’t done any aps-c mirrorless cameras in over a year and a half. (Read my article about the Sony APS-C dilemma here).
Entry level: A6000 and A5100 are both OLD. The A6000 is already over 4 years old. The A5100 will hit the 4 year old mark before Photokina. Traditionally, entry level cameras get updated fairly often with the friendliest consumer features. For example, the A6000 may be the only entry/mid level camera on the market without a touch screen. (But at current pricing, the Sony A6000 still delivers great performance and image quality.)
Pro level APS-C: Sony lacks a true competitor for the Nikon D500 and Canon 7D series. Further, there are some ways where the Canon M5 and M50 are ahead of the Sony A6300 and Sony A6500.
My Photokina Predictions:
In general terms, this will be the year of mirrorless. Nikon’s own managers have indicated mirrorless is coming within the next year. Canon has officially indicated they plan to concentrate more on mirrorless. So this is the year that the two biggest fish dive into the smaller pond where Sony had been building a market.
Canon:
They will wait longer before upgrading the 7D series, but an upgrade is coming.
2018 Photokina will be about showcasing full frame mirrorless. They will either announce something over the summer or at Photokina. I’m expecting a full frame mirrorless camera that keeps the EF mount. The mount is already fully electronic and works well with mirrorless systems. Instead of starting from scratch, I think they will bank on their huge selection of EF lenses. It may also be why they haven’t greatly expanded their M lens offerings. They will keep the smaller mount of aps-c, but I expect EF mount for full frame. I suspect the new mirrorless camera will slot in between the 6Dii and 5Div in price, features and performance.
Possible surprise: Canon 7diii, a statement that they still take aps-c dSLR seriously.
Nikon:
Rumors are rampant about mirrorless coming soon. They are the last to the party. The question is whether they start with full frame (FX) or aps-c (DX). I expect both will be on display at Photokina (though one might be announced before Photokina, with the other announced at Photokina). I further expect the cameras will use a new mount. Expect Nikon to pack in some sort of new twist or feature not offered by Sony and Canon, to make up for being behind and having fewer lenses.
I believe they will look at the response to those models before deciding what to do about D3400/D750 updates. They could potentially steer their lower end customers towards mirrorless while pushing the high end users to the D500/D850/D5 cameras. They have a history of not wanting to cannibalize their own sales so I doubt they will do anything that can undermine their own sales of the D850.
Possible Surprise: D3400 update
Sony:
I expect them to be quiet as usual for the last few years. They will play a quiet confident defense, allowing Canon and Nikon to release new full frame cameras, and let the press compare them to the Sony A7riii and A7iii, as well as the well developed Sony lens system. Sony will hope that the new Canon and Nikon full frame models are still clearly behind the “basic” Sony A7iii.
I do expect a couple of announcements from Sony in May through June, and also showcase these cameras. Many are expecting an A7siii. While possible, I wouldn’t be surprised if Sony waited to 2019 for this video-centric camera model. Furthermore, waiting would allow them to release a full frame camera in 2019. None of their other current models would likely be updated until 2020.
I do expect a high end pro level aps-c camera. Here, they need to be aggressive. They haven’t updated aps-c since 2016. With Nikon and Canon poised to get serious about mirrorless, it’s unlikely they can compete with the A9 and A7riii right out of the gate. But they might be able to match a 2016 Sony A6500. Arguably, the Canon M5 and M50 already match the A6500 and A6300. (Each brand has different advantages, there is no clear winner). Sony will want a new model to move the goal posts. I expect this model to either come Spring/early Summer, or immediately after Photokina, with their own press event, to kill any momentum that Nikon or Canon generated.
Sony will showcase their new 400mm F/2.8 at Photokina. I expect there will be a couple more new lenses. Especially if Canon and Nikon start new mirrorless full frame mounts, Sony would use this to show the depth of their own lens system in comparison. (Reversing the positions from just a couple of years ago).
Possible Surprise: Sony A77iii. But with Photokina likely to be mostly mirrorless in 2018, I don’t expect Sony to be waving a SLT banner. Still, if we don’t see a Sony A77iii within the next 4 months, it will allow for a pretty safe conclusion that A-mount is indeed dead.
Conclusion
By the time we head into holiday shopping, all three of the big camera brands will be offering full frame mirrorless cameras. In 2019, everyone will re-evaluate and determine how much remaining energy to devote to traditional dSLR. Compacts will remain dead except for a handful of 1″ sensor cameras.
